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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.